Home Prices are Projected to Increase

9143 Flint Way

9143 Flint Way

The Case-Shiller index of home prices in the 20 largest metros reported January prices were up 8.1% over the previous year. That was the largest annual gain in over 6 years. In Park City, this number was up 12% within city limits, where the median price of a home hit $1,312,500.

Experts have projected that U.S. home prices will appreciate by 5.4% in 2013. If we assume that prices will rise about the same 5% over the next twelve months, here is the difference a buyer will pay if they wait a year.

$500,000 home would be $525,000.

$750,000 home would be $787,500.

$1,000,000 home would be $1,050,000.

As we all know, interest rates are still at all time lows. A 1% increase in the interest rate is equal to a 10% increase in purchase price, in terms of the effect on payments and purchase power. If interest rates AND prices rise, buyers could be looking at—

$500,000 home would effectively be $575,000.

750,000 home would effectively be $862,500.

$1,000,000 home would effectively be $1,150,000.

Doesn’t it seem like if you are thinking of trading up or down, now would be a good time to make your move?

Could Park City Become Home to the World’s Wealthiest?

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One Hyde Park is a condominium in London where apartments sell for nearly $12,000/square foot.  Clearly this development is the ultimate in luxury that only the uber-wealthy of the world can afford.  Many of the residences are owned by off shore trusts making it difficult or impossible to track the actual residents.  The press has speculated owners hail from Kazakh, Russia, Ukraine, Britain, Nigeria, China, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, but the developer will not confirm or deny this.

One Hyde Park boasts beautiful architecture and floor to ceiling windows to maximize views and light.  What other amenities attract billionaires?

The world’s wealthiest individuals require security and privacy.  In addition, they enjoy the bragging rights of owning one of the most famous and priciest apartments in the world.  There is a relationship between One Hyde Park and London’s Mandarin Oriental.  The Mandarin provides hotel amenities such as housekeeping, food and beverage, concierge, car cleaning and valet.

To cater to the owners’ privacy needs, there are private cocktail suites, cinemas and meeting rooms available.  There are even two private gyms for those who wish to work out in private.

 

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Learning about One Hyde Park inspired me to think about similar properties in Park City and only one immediately came to mind:  The Montage Deer Valley.  Priced under $2000/square foot, The Montage seems like a bargain!  The Montage Deer Valley has owner amenities similar to One Hyde Park.  It’s location at Deer Valley, the number one ski resort in North America for six straight years, is exceptional.  Montage has already past $100 million in sales and has attracted the attention of international buyers.   Wealthy individuals around the world are always looking for a safe place to stash their cash.  My prediction is that we will see more of such buyers enter the Park City luxury real estate market. Of course, these individuals keep such a low profiles and have so many homes, their entrance into the Park City real estate market may not be noticed.

Why Moving Up NOW Makes Perfect Sense

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Two years ago my clients, Dr. and Mrs. Smith (not their real names, but the rest of the story is factual) purchased a condominium at Bear Hollow Village.  They paid $485,000.  They used the condominium for the past two summers and for family ski trips.  They donated a week at their condominium to various auctions.  When they weren’t using the condominium, they rented it.

Just before last Christmas, Mrs. Smith told me that she really wanted a single family home when her family visits Park City during the summer of 2013.  Her kids are active in sports and want a yard.  We listed the condominium and found a buyer in about 30 days.  We had multiple offers and sold the condominium for $490,000.

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Just before the condominium closed, Mrs. Smith and I looked at some houses together.  She likes the Silver Springs neighborhood because of its large lots, mature landscaping and access to the Park City trails.  I showed her the home pictured above. We were the first of six showings scheduled that day and that was before the sign even went up in the front yard.  I told Mrs. Smith that she needed to write an offer immediately if she wanted that house.

That night the Smiths were under contract to buy the home.  When Dr. and Mrs. Smith applied for their loan, they learned that even though the home is worth nearly $100,000 more than the condominium, their payments are going to lower!  They are getting the house they want and their out of pocket expense each month is going to be less.

This may be the perfect time to move up.

Adventures in Southern Utah

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One of the unexpected advantages of having a Park City residence is the driving distance to Southern Utah.  Southern Utah looks a whole lot different than Park City.  The ancient geology is visible to even the most casual observer.  In my opinion, the ancient geological history combined with more recent Native American artifacts create a unique stillness that I have not experienced anywhere else, except for maybe Sedona, AZ.  The red-orange color of the rock is known to be one of the most neuro stimulating of colors. It enhances creative thinking and problem solving.  The red-rock monoliths of Southern Utah are also famed to be life-transforming and soul-nourishing.

There are several national and state parks in Southern Utah.  I had the pleasure of heading south two weekends in a row last month.  My first trip, in celebration of a birthday, was to Red Mountain Spa in Saint George.  Red Mountain Spa is adjacent to Snow Canyon State Park.  Snow Canyon boasts white sandstone cliffs of both white and red rock with black lava rock and red sandy washes.

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My girlfriend and I enjoyed a peaceful and restorative weekend in St. George.  It is exactly a 4.5 hour drive from Park City, straight down Highway 15.  The excellent food and activities at the spa combined with the incredible Snow Canyon backdrop turned this easy girls’ road trip into an experience equivalent to small slice of heaven. I’m definitely going back.

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The weekend after I visited Red Mountain Spa, I traveled to Moab, UT with my family.  It was a business trip for me.  We stayed at the Desert Hills Bed and Breakfast, which I will be listing for sale on March 1, 2013.  February is considered off season in Southern Utah, but the snow on the red rocks created a beauty all its own.

Moab boasts two National Parks, Arches and Canyonlands as well as Dead Horse State Park.

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Since we had already been to the two National Parks on prior visits, we decided to check out Dead Horse State Park, an intimate park with absolutely incredible vistas.

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While Moab contains the same beautiful red rocks as St. George, there are many more activities for the adventure seeker in Moab.  River rafting, slick rock mountain biking, helicopter tours, climbing, canyoneering, jeep tours, golfing, and hot air ballooning are just a few available activities.

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Moab is also about a 4.5 hour drive from Park City.  About an hour outside of Moab is the town of Green River.  This is river rafting central during the season.  A glance at Trip Advisor [live link] made it clear that Ray’s Tavern was the place where we should stop for lunch.

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We ate the best hamburgers I have ever eaten in my life!  The meat was fresh and they were char-broiled to perfection.  Perhaps it was also the surprise of going to a dive in the middle of nowhere and eating some of the best food ever that made Ray’s so enjoyable.

If you leave for Southern Utah mid-day on a Friday, you can spend an enjoyable weekend in Red Rock country.  The people are super nice and the vibe is very different than Park City.   Southern Utah is a great place to escape to in April and May, when the snow begins to melt in Park City, but the weather is still a bit frigid.

I hope I inspired you to hop in your car and travel south.  I highly recommend you check out Desert Hills Bed and Breakfast if you are looking for a great place to stay in Moab.  You might fall in love with Moab and the Bed and Breakfast so much that you’ll want to buy it.

The Wait for Prices to Come Back Could Be a Long One..

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While the floor of real estate prices appears to have materialized, experts predict that home prices are likely to recover about 3-4 percent annually in the coming years.

In Park City, our median price is down about 38% from the peak and equal to pricing in January, 2006.  Note that we did not hit our median price peak until almost 2 years after the national peak.

In an article for CNNMoney, the analytics firm Fiserv projected that 2006 prices would not return until 2023:

“Fiserv forecasts prices will bounce back an average of 3.7% a year for the next five years — a rate that would still leave prices 20% below the peak. At that forecasted growth rate, the national average high of $238,000 would not be hit again until 2023.”

If you are waiting for 2006 values to return before selling your house, realize it will take years and, unfortunately, there is a possibility you will never get your money back.

Mountain Interior Design Trends for 2013

An Interview w/Mario Ferreira

Director of Business Development, Barclay Butera Interiors

Some of my clients are buying homes where they are allowed to choose the interior finishes.   Others have asked me for help with remodeling.  Park City homeowners want to know what is cutting edge right now.  I went to a Park City expert, Mario Ferreira, to find out.

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Barclay Butera Interiors has furnished some of the most high end and amazing homes in Park City, including several condominiums and the lobby at Flagstaff in Deer Valley and a residence at the Montage Deer Valley.  They offer full interior design services, including furnishings, accessories and remodeling.  Mario explained the difference between an “interior decorator” and an “interior designer”.  A decorator just knows furniture.  A designer has the training and certification to understand floor plans and finishes in addition to furnishings.  Mario works with interior designers at Barclay Butera Interiors to provide the full spectrum of design services for their clients.  DiningTable

Here are interior design trends that Mario noted:

  • Owners are shying away from big logs and a cabin feel.  Today, they prefer cleaner lines.  Darker wood stains are used and undermount sinks are back to create a more streamlined look.
  • “Mountain Elegant” or “Mountain Contemporary” are terms used to describe the most popular look right now.  Most Park City homeowners do not want to feel like they are living in a New York loft.  They want clean lines, but also a sense of warmth.
  • Park City homeowners want a warm home that is comfortable.  Earth tones are mixed with accent colors such as red, orange, blue, yellow and teal.  Colors that a designer may not have used together 5 years ago (like red and orange) are used for walls and accents to create a fresh look that pops.  These same colors and combinations are also showing up on fashion runways.
  • The home is not “matchy-matchy”.  The chairs in a room may be different, but blend together.  Two nightstands may be different.  Different patterns that are in the same color family may be used.  Animal prints and fur are also used to add texture.  The idea is to create a layered look with depth.
  • Wall coverings are back.  Textured walls with cloth or bamboo are used to further create warmth.
  • The home should reflect the owner’s use.  If the home is in a rental pool, durable and washable fabrics are chosen.  If there are children or grandchildren, there should not be sharp edges.
  • Theater rooms are still popular, but owners are moving towards sofas, chaise lounges and sacs instead of theater seating to create a more cozy and comfortable space.  Kitchen

For more information about Barclay Butera Interiors, visit www.barclaybuterainteriors.com.

You can reach Mario at 435.655.5030 or Mario@barclaybutera.com.  He is an excellent resource.  If you are purchasing a new home or remodeling your current home and want advice on the items and finishes that provide the highest return on investment, please contact me.

Tactics for Navigating Today’s Real Estate Market

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According the chart above which shows sales absorption, the number of properties sold in today’s market is skyrocketing compared to the bottom in 2009.  With that incredible increase in absorption of inventory, one would expect a subsequent increase in prices.

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As the chart above shows, prices are still relatively flat.

This is a new market dynamic for buyers, sellers and real estate agents and requires a few navigation tactics:

Sellers

Today’s record low interest rates tempt even cash buyers to obtain financing.  Such loans are contingent upon the property successfully appraising at purchase price.  Guess what the appraisal is based on?  The last 3 comparable properties that sold.  Although I have been able to locate buyers willing to pay more than the last sale for my listings, the appraisals have been challenging.   After getting their hands slapped during the real estate meltdown, appraisers are unwilling to go out on a limb and appraise a property for much higher than the last sale.  Sellers, you need to be aware of this when you price your property.  I will fight for my sellers by writing appeals link to the blog I wrote on appeals last month but there is no guarantee I will be successful every time.

In some neighborhoods, prices have not yet stabilized.  I listed a condominium this past November and two months later, the comparable sales picture changed.  A few comparable condominiums in the last two months sold for less than those sold in the 6-month period we used to price the listing.

Necessary tactic: Price according to the last comparable sales; not higher.  If your home is on the market for more than three months, re-examine comparable sales and be willing to adjust your price accordingly.

Buyers

If you have been out looking at property, you know there are few available properties in excellent condition and priced to sell.  Chances are that you are not the only buyer who realizes a good property when it comes along.

Necessary tactic:  Don’t submit a low ball offer!  Avoid the multiple-offer scenario and come in with a strong offer along with a pre-approval letter or proof of funds.

Park City, Utah Real Estate Trends

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For those of you with short attention spans, here are the 2012 over 2011 sales trends for Park City, Utah.  These sales are similar to trends seen in other parts of the United States and have continued into 2013.

Inventory -down

Median sales price-slightly up

Sales volume-up 15%

Number of sales-up 9% over 2011 and 61% over 2009

Distressed sales-down

The combination of all these factors points to a continued strong market in 2013.  For further details about actual numbers or particular neighborhoods, please contact me at 435.901.0659 or nancytallman@gmail.com

Park City’s Newest Restaurants

Lori Harris, owner of Mary Janes on Main Street; Nancy Tallman, Hilary Reiter, Director of Marketing and PR at Sky; Linda Lovelace
Lori Harris, owner of Mary Janes on Main Street; Nancy Tallman, Hilary Reiter, Director of Marketing and PR at Sky Lodge; Linda Lovelace
Although Park City is blessed with a plethora of fine dining options, as locals we are spoiled and love it when we have new choices.  Hopefully, you will have an opportunity to try one or both of these new restaurants, located at Park City’s “Sky”, on Heber Avenue in Park City’s historic district.

Table One at Sky (Formerly “Easy Street” at the Sky Lodge)

A 24-foot communal dining table serves as Table One’s center piece where guests can mingle and get to know one another.  “Traditional” seating is also available.  The cuisine is cutting-edge and the setting is a beautiful, contemporary room with an open kitchen.  Chef Kevin Dalebout moved to Table One from the highly rated Mariposa at Deer Valley Resort.  His cuisine is artfully prepared, and the dinner menu includes locally sourced “mountain fare” such as venison, rabbit and rack of lamb.

Table One is also open for breakfast and it’s definitely the most beautiful breakfast space in downtown Park City.  There are hearty offerings, such as housemade buttermilk biscuits and gravy, a breakfast burrito with chorizo and queso fresco, along with lighter options such as house made granola, yogurt and fresh fruit.

Tavern at Sky (Formerly “Easy Street’s Downstairs Bar at the Sky Lodge)

For lunch, après ski and late night drinks, check out Tavern.  This British-inspired gastro pub serves hearty, high-end pub fare complimented by an impressive list of 55 imported and microbrew beers and 25 wines by the glass.  The setting is cozy and intimate.  British Chef Ashley Chapman studied under the renowned Gordon Ramsay, and offers a unique seasonal menu perfect for Park City’s mountain winter.  The menu offers locally sourced items such as Utah Trout and Bison Cottage Pie.  With valet parking (or skiing in on the town lift), it’s easy to get in and out of Tavern for a quick lunch.  Although the room is so warm and cozy, you may not want to leave.

Ultra-Luxury Real Estate Sales Trends in Park City

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It is amazing to me that in a town the size of Park City, 17 single family homes listed above $5 million sold during 2012.  Twelve of those transactions disclosed the sale price on the MLS and five did not.  The average list price of the 17 homes was $7,453,000.  The average disclosed sale price was $6,150,000.  The average list/sale price ratio was just above 90%.

 

It is interesting to note that some of these homes were on the market for, literally, years.  One home, listed at $19,500,000, was originally listed at $21,000,000.  Another home, listed and sold for $11,225,000, was originally listed at $17,000,000.  When it comes to ultra-luxury homes, the list to sale price ratio is not indicative of the deep discounts taken off the original list price.

 

Although we have seen an uptick in the number and sale price of luxury homes in Park City, the sense of excess, which characterized the boom years of 2006 and 2007, has not been visible in most of these sales.  The ultra-luxury buyer senses an opportunity to purchase a fantastic home below replacement cost.  This buyer will walk away rather than overpay.   Worn out ultra-luxury sellers, who have had their homes on and off the market for years, are willing to take their losses in exchange for the freedom of moving their money to more profitable investments.  Some of these luxury sellers wanted to take their losses prior to the end of 2012 to offset capital gains in other ventures.  First American Title Company in Park City noted that December 31, 2012, was the busiest day of closings in their firm’s history.

 

And the trend continues….an agent in my office just received an offer on a $9,000,000 listing in Park City.